Carly Cassella<\/strong><\/p>\nAra\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, insan kaynakl\u0131 emisyonun ve arazi kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n mevcut haliyle devam ettirilmesi durumunda, 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na dek Afrika\u2019daki b\u00fcy\u00fck insans\u0131 maymunlar\u0131n \u00f6m\u00fcr alanlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 94\u2019l\u00fck bir k\u0131sm\u0131n\u0131 kaybedece\u011fini varsay\u0131m ediyorlar. Bu felaket ya\u015fanmadan evvel fosil yak\u0131t emisyonunu azaltarak ve ekosistemleri koruyarak harekete ge\u00e7sek dahi, ara\u015ft\u0131rma modelleri, \u00f6n\u00fcm\u00fczdeki otuz y\u0131l i\u00e7inde gorillerin, \u015fempanzelerin ve bonobolar\u0131n Afrika\u2019daki hayat alanlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 85\u2019ini yitirece\u011fini ortaya koyuyor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6NG\u00d6R\u00dcLER \u0130\u00c7 KARARTICI<\/b><\/p>\n
Senaryolardan hangisi ger\u00e7ekle\u015firse ger\u00e7ekle\u015fsin, toplam \u00f6m\u00fcr alan\u0131 kayb\u0131n\u0131n neredeyse yar\u0131s\u0131 ulusal parklar \u00fczere korunan alanlarda ger\u00e7ekle\u015febilir. Sonu\u00e7ta, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, insan imali hudutlarda durmuyor. D\u00fcnya daha da \u0131s\u0131nd\u0131k\u00e7a ve do\u011fal alanlar de\u011fi\u015ftik\u00e7e, b\u00fcy\u00fck insans\u0131 maymunlar\u0131n ebediyen daha y\u00fcksek bir yere s\u0131\u011f\u0131nma talihi vard\u0131r lakin bu vakit al\u0131r ve pek \u00e7ok t\u0131bb\u0131n \u00fcreme s\u00fcreci yava\u015ft\u0131r ve uygun ortamlar gerektirir.<\/p>\n
Bu cins g\u00f6\u00e7ler e\u015fzamanl\u0131 bi\u00e7imde b\u00fcy\u00fck insans\u0131 maymunlar\u0131 korunakl\u0131 alanlardan \u00e7\u0131kararak n\u00fcfuslar\u0131n\u0131 daha da b\u00fcy\u00fck bir risk alt\u0131na sokabilir. Asl\u0131nda, bir k\u00fcme yeni ara\u015ft\u0131rma modeli, gelecekte \u015fempanzeler, goriller ve bonobolar i\u00e7in gereken alanlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck oranda tar\u0131m, madencilik, ormanc\u0131l\u0131k, avc\u0131l\u0131k \u00fczere faaliyetlere ve kentsel geni\u015flemeye maruz kalan korunmas\u0131z alanlara yanl\u0131\u015fs\u0131z kayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Mevcut \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcler, bug\u00fcne kadar Afrika b\u00fcy\u00fck insans\u0131 maymun topluluklar\u0131 hakk\u0131nda toplanan en geni\u015f kapsaml\u0131 bilgi taban\u0131na dayan\u0131yor. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, \u00e7e\u015fitli iklim kestirimlerini, arazi kullan\u0131m datalar\u0131n\u0131 ve insan n\u00fcfusuna dair art\u0131\u015f projeksiyonlar\u0131n\u0131 kullanarak, bu canl\u0131lar\u0131n ger\u00e7ekte ne kadar tehlike alt\u0131nda oldu\u011funu ortaya koydular. Son y\u0131llarda b\u00fcy\u00fck maymunlar\u0131n durumunun ne kadar berbata gitti\u011fini g\u00f6steren pek \u00e7ok ara\u015ft\u0131rma yap\u0131lm\u0131\u015f olsa da, az say\u0131daki \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma gelecekte maymun topluluklar\u0131n\u0131n ba\u015f\u0131na neler gelece\u011fini \u00f6ng\u00f6rmeyi ama\u00e7lad\u0131.<\/p>\n
HEM ASYA HEM AFR\u0130KA\u2019DAK\u0130 SOYLAR T\u00dcKEN\u0130YOR<\/b><\/p>\n
Hem Afrika hem de Asya\u2019da bulunan b\u00fcy\u00fck insans\u0131 maymunlar\u0131n hepsinin de ku\u015fa\u011f\u0131 t\u00fckenmekte; kimileri vefat kal\u0131m s\u0131n\u0131r\u0131ndalar ve hayat alanlar\u0131ndan geriye kalanlar da insan kaynakl\u0131 m\u00fcdahaleler y\u00fcz\u00fcnden s\u00fcratle yok oluyor. \u0130\u015fte bu noktada, en iyi senaryo bile kusursuz g\u00f6r\u00fcnm\u00fcyor. Afrika\u2019da ya\u015fayan b\u00fcy\u00fck insans\u0131 maymunlar i\u00e7in belirledi\u011fimiz muhafaza alanlar\u0131 yetersiz kal\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
Kullan\u0131lan ara\u015ft\u0131rma modelleri, gelecekte, korunakl\u0131 alanlar\u0131n\u0131n h\u00e2l\u00e2 varl\u0131\u011f\u0131n\u0131 koruyup korumad\u0131\u011f\u0131na bak\u0131lmaks\u0131z\u0131n, Afrika\u2019daki b\u00fct\u00fcn b\u00fcy\u00fck insans\u0131 maymunlar\u0131n devasa hayat alan\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131na maruz kalaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6r\u00fcyor. \u015eu anda, pek \u00e7ok Afrika insans\u0131 maymunu m\u00fcdafaa alanlar\u0131n\u0131n d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda, bilhassa de tar\u0131ma ya da palmiye ya\u011f\u0131 \u00fcretimine ayr\u0131lan alanlarda ya\u015f\u0131yor.<\/p>\n
\u00d6rnek olarak, t\u00fcm Grauer gorillerinin d\u00f6rtte \u00fc\u00e7\u00fc, da\u011f gorillerinin y\u00fczde 64\u2019\u00fc, \u0131rmak gorillerinin y\u00fczde 91\u2019i, bonobolar\u0131n y\u00fczde 80\u2019i, Nijerya-Kamerun \u015fempanzelerinin y\u00fczde 90\u2019\u0131, do\u011fu \u015fempanzelerinin y\u00fczde 80\u2019i ve merkez Afrika \u015fempanzelerinin y\u00fczde 80\u2019i m\u00fcdafaa alanlar\u0131 d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ya\u015f\u0131yor. \u0130ddia edece\u011finiz \u00fczere, bu korunmas\u0131z alanlar da insan kaynakl\u0131 ziyanlara kar\u015f\u0131 daha savunmas\u0131z durumda.<\/p>\n
Liverpool\u2019daki John Moores \u00dcniversitesi\u2019nde primat ekolojisi ve korunmas\u0131 \u00fczerine ara\u015ft\u0131rmalar yapan Joana Carvalho, \u201cEn b\u00fcy\u00fck hayat alan\u0131 kay\u0131plar\u0131n\u0131n korunan b\u00f6lgelerin d\u0131\u015f\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015fmesinin bekleniyor olmas\u0131, Afrika\u2019da mevcut muhafaza alt\u0131ndaki alanlar\u0131n olu\u015fturdu\u011fu a\u011f\u0131n, b\u00fcy\u00fck maymun topluluklar\u0131na uygun olan hayat alanlar\u0131n\u0131 korumak ve onlar\u0131 faal bir formda birbirine ba\u011flamak i\u00e7in ne kadar yetersiz oldu\u011funu g\u00f6zler \u00f6n\u00fcne seriyor\u201d diyor.<\/p>\n
G\u00d6\u00c7 \u0130\u00c7\u0130N K\u00c2F\u0130 VAK\u0130T KALMADI<\/b><\/p>\n
Hi\u00e7 ku\u015fku yok ki, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011fi, bir yandan birtak\u0131m hayat alanlar\u0131n\u0131 b\u00fcy\u00fck maymunlar i\u00e7in daha az al\u0131ml\u0131 hale getirirken \u00f6b\u00fcr yandan yeni habitatlar yaratabilir. Bununla bir arada, b\u00fcy\u00fck insans\u0131 maymun topluluklar\u0131n\u0131n yeni ve elveri\u015fli alanlara da\u011f\u0131lmas\u0131 y\u00fczlerce, tahminen de binlerce y\u0131l s\u00fcrebilir. Muhtemelen otuz y\u0131l bunun i\u00e7in k\u00e2fi de\u011fil. Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, iklim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin ger\u00e7ekle\u015fme surat\u0131 g\u00f6z \u00f6n\u00fcnde bulunduruldu\u011funda, b\u00fcy\u00fck insans\u0131 maymunlar\u0131n b\u00fcy\u00fck ihtimalle ihtiya\u00e7 duyulan oranda g\u00f6\u00e7 edemeyece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyorlar.<\/p>\n
Bu durum, bir\u00e7ok cins i\u00e7in yok olu\u015f manas\u0131na gelebilir. Mesela, gelece\u011fe ait senaryolar ba\u011flam\u0131nda ger\u00e7ekle\u015ftirilen yeni bir \u00e7al\u0131\u015fma, \u015fempanzelerin \u00f6m\u00fcr alanlar\u0131n\u0131 de\u011fi\u015ftirmemeleri durumunda, ya\u015fad\u0131klar\u0131 b\u00f6lgenin d\u00f6rtte \u00fc\u00e7\u00fcnden fazlas\u0131n\u0131 kaybedeceklerini g\u00f6steriyor. Ba\u015fka yandan, da\u011f gorilleri ve \u0131rmak gorillerinin gidebilece\u011fi \u00f6b\u00fcr hi\u00e7bir yer yok. Elimizdeki modeller, en iyi senaryoda bile bu iki b\u00fcy\u00fck maymun tipine uygun olan \u00f6m\u00fcr alanlar\u0131n\u0131n b\u00fcsb\u00fct\u00fcn kaybolaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 ve yeni ve uygun bir hayat alan\u0131 bulunmas\u0131n\u0131n m\u00fcmk\u00fcn olmayaca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 g\u00f6sterdi.<\/p>\n
TAB\u0130AT TALANININ \u0130VED\u0130L\u0130KLE DURMASI GEREK\u0130YOR<\/b><\/p>\n
Max Planck Enstit\u00fcs\u00fc\u2019nde misyon yapan ekolojist Hjalmar K\u00fchl, \u201cB\u00fcy\u00fck insans\u0131 maymunlar\u0131n b\u00f6lgelerinden \u00e7\u0131kar\u0131lan do\u011fal kaynaklar\u0131n global \u00e7aptaki t\u00fcketimi, bu canl\u0131lar\u0131n ya\u015fad\u0131\u011f\u0131 \u00e7\u00f6k\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn ana nedenlerinden biridir\u201d diyor: \u201cBu kaynaklardan faydalanan t\u00fcm topluluklar daha s\u00fcrd\u00fcr\u00fclebilir bir iktisat geli\u015ftirerek b\u00fcy\u00fck insans\u0131 maymunlar, hayat alanlar\u0131 ve buralarda ya\u015fayan be\u015ferler i\u00e7in daha iyi bir gelecek sa\u011flama sorumlulu\u011funu ta\u015f\u0131yorlar.\u201d<\/p>\n
Asya\u2019da bulunan b\u00fcy\u00fck insans\u0131 maymunlar da emsal problemlerle kar\u015f\u0131 kar\u015f\u0131ya. 1990\u2019lardan beridir orangutanlar\u0131n hayat alanlar\u0131n\u0131n y\u00fczde 80\u2019inden fazlas\u0131 yok oldu ve birtak\u0131m uzmanlar birebir do\u011frultuda devam edersek bu b\u00fcy\u00fck maymunlar\u0131n\u0131n soyunun da on y\u0131l i\u00e7inde olabilece\u011fini d\u00fc\u015f\u00fcn\u00fcyor.<\/p>\n
Yeni ara\u015ft\u0131rman\u0131n m\u00fcellifleri, \u201c\u0130klim de\u011fi\u015fikli\u011finin Afrika maymunlar\u0131 i\u00e7in alan kayb\u0131n\u0131 daha da berbat bir hale getirmesini ve sonu\u00e7ta orangutanlar\u0131 etkilemesi beklendi\u011fi i\u00e7in, tiplerin kal\u0131c\u0131l\u0131\u011f\u0131 ba\u011flam\u0131nda \u00f6nemli tehditler yarataca\u011f\u0131n\u0131 \u00f6ng\u00f6rebiliriz\u201d diyor. Y\u00fczy\u0131l\u0131n sonuna gelindi\u011finde, insanlar\u0131n geriye kalan tek b\u00fcy\u00fck maymun olma ihtimali ziyadesiyle y\u00fcksek.<\/p>\n
\nYaz\u0131n\u0131n \u00f6zg\u00fcn\u00fc Science Alert sitesinden al\u0131nm\u0131\u015ft\u0131r. (\u00c7eviren: Tarkan Tufan)<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/p>\nGazete Duvar<\/span><\/p>\n<\/div>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"
Carly Cassella Ara\u015ft\u0131rmac\u0131lar, insan kaynakl\u0131 emisyonun ve arazi kullan\u0131m\u0131n\u0131n mevcut haliyle devam ettirilmesi durumunda, 2050 y\u0131l\u0131na dek …<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":76710,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[2205,1037,491,236,625],"class_list":["post-76709","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-teknoloji","tag-afrika","tag-alanlar","tag-arastirma","tag-insan","tag-yasam"],"yoast_head":"\n
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